This year, market sentiment has somewhat overwhelmed long-term business strategy and sound financial management, especially in the energy sector. We looked at six energy majors where prices have fallen 39% – 65% from pre-crisis levels. While grappling with the collapse in oil prices, consumer demand and addressing the climate emergency, companies have also had to find the time to reassure their investors. This year, market sentiment has somewhat overwhelmed long-term business strategy and sound financial management, especially in the energy sector. We looked at six energy majors where prices have fallen 39% – 65% from pre-crisis levels. While grappling with the collapse in oil prices, consumer demand and addressing the climate emergency, companies have also had to find the time to reassure their investors.
Market data can provide valuable context to the narrative by drawing direct, quantifiable sector and index parallels. In this example, daily trading volumes have dropped by an average of 57% since Q1, and in a tightly banded range, it shows how the whole sector has been uniformly impacted. Following the heavy rotation out of equities during the great Q1 sell-off, Q3 volumes reached unprecedentedly low levels in these big names (Equinor, Repsol, Eni, BP, Total and Royal Dutch Shell), as seen in most sectors. Reversal of this trend may be a clear signal that recovery is coming.
The markets responded with the usual enthusiasm for major news yesterday with the announcement of Jenny Chen joining our team to extend our reach in the US market. In other news, we saw a likely result in the US presidential election and word of a vaccine. As with Q1, the stories precipitated dramatic increases in traded volumes, price volatility and sector rotation. But did you allow for the same changes in market conditions when trading?
It hasn’t been a good quarter for the European Equity Market. In nearly every country, we’ve seen record lows for volumes throughout the summer. August delivered the slowest month for trading since the MiFID2 era began in January 2018 and the pattern persisted into September. Although 2020 remains ahead of 2019 in terms of daily turnover, the lead has diminished substantially from 34% in Q1 to 11% in Q3 and may evaporate completely in Q4. You can download the full report by clicking on the icons or clicking here.
Having a good understanding of how to select a venue when executing a large trade is essential for successful performance. There are many venues to consider and each venue has its own “sweet spot”, depending on the names and size traded and that varies according to your level of urgency. Using objective criteria, such as expected time to execution and likely price impact, we can rank venues into an order of priority for routing. Furthermore, when we look at how this changes over time, we get a sense of the importance of regular monitoring and updating of the smart order routing process.
Having a good understanding of how to select a venue when executing a large trade is essential for successful performance. There are many venues to consider and each venue has its own “sweet spot”, depending on the names and size traded and that varies according to your level of urgency. Using objective criteria, such as expected time to execution and likely price impact, we can rank venues into an order of priority for routing. Furthermore, when we look at how this changes over time, we get a sense of the importance of regular monitoring and updating of the smart order routing process.
The strange times continue. While Q1 broke all the records, Q2 came up with a few surprises. The biggest MSCI rebalance in history pushed the figures up for May, thanks to some major index re-weightings. Volatility returned in June to create the 3rd biggest month since MiFID2 began. In our quarterly review we look at the patterns of volumes and market share and this time we take a closer look inside the box of Systematic Internalisation.
Checking liquidity data isn’t just something we need to do once a month using a summary report. It is part of the daily routine. Every stock has its own characteristics that can change significantly and surprisingly frequently, and when you are trading in a fragmented world with so many different types of liquidity pool you need to be alert to those changes to obtain the best execution results. Let’s say you’ve been pushing UK mid caps recently and Travis Perkins (TPK) (purveyors of fine building materials to the trades and DIY) has caught your eye. A new branch has opened in your local area and you’ve noticed a long queue outside at the weekends, not to mention Boris’ now regular speeches about building for the future. Several of your clients like the idea and today a nice order for a day’s ADV has landed on your desk like a 100 litre bag of sharp sand. TPK can be illiquid but you’re keen to deliver an execution that’s as smooth as a final skim. You are tempted to follow your instincts and leave a chunk for the Close while putting a few good size orders into the Conditional venues, but before getting the toolbox out you have a quick look in your big-xyt Liquidity Cockpit.
We know that trading behaviour, microstructure and liquidity all vary significantly between venues and across individual stocks. Understanding these differences has become a very important prerequisite to any market participant. Armed with this knowledge, traders can substantially reduce their execution costs, product managers can design better strategies and trading venues can improve their liquidity sourcing. Traders and practitioners are always faced with the question of which venues to pick and how to rank them. The answer to that question is a little more complex than initially thought and the best short answer one can give is: well, it depends. We know that each venue has three important factors that influence the ranking: the speed of execution (or the number of trades per day); the distribution of order sizes and price improvement which measures the implicit costs of trading in the venue. These are all objective measures that can be approximated from public data.
It seems like a good time to leave the days of isolation behind us but fear not, our observations will continue this week. Following on from our previous post, we promised to take a closer look at one of the many outliers from the exceptional closing volumes on 29th May. Rolls Royce struck us as an interesting stand-out (main image above). There was heavy trading ( 32% of the daily turnover) at the close, although as far as we are aware, it was not an index addition or deletion on the day, The value traded was five times larger than the twenty day average closing volume (See chart below).
